Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory


000
WTNT31 KNHC 041450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA...
...FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 81.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SW OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Florida
Keys, the west coast of Florida west of the Card Sound Bridge,
Florida Bay, and Lake Okeechobee.

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 26.5 North, longitude 81.4 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion 
is expected to continue through tonight.  A turn toward the 
east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is 
expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. 
On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across 
southern or central Florida today, over the southwestern Atlantic 
north of the Bahamas tonight, and near or to the north of Bermuda 
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off the east 
coast of Florida by tonight, and some strengthening is forecast 
tonight through Monday as the system moves farther away from 
Florida over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center.  Over the past few hours, a weather
station at Fowey Rocks near Miami, Florida reported sustained
winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) at an
elevation of 144 ft (44 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South
Florida and the Keys through this morning, beginning to diminish
this afternoon.  Heavy rainfall will continue across the
northwestern Bahamas through today. The following storm totals are
expected:

South Florida: Storm total of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of
15 inches. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected.

Florida Keys: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of
10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12
inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Florida today, especially in squalls, and in the northwestern
Bahamas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3 
ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A couple tornadoes are possible over the southern 
Florida Peninsula and Upper Keys through early afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



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