Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory


659 
WTNT31 KNHC 040850
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
500 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022

...FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 83.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM N OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card
Sound Bridge
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
Mayabeque
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the poorly defined center of the
disturbance was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 83.1
West.  The system is moving faster toward the northeast near 18 mph
(30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight.  A turn toward the east-northeast with an additional
increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the east Monday night.  On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to move across southern or central Florida
today, over the southwestern Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight,
and near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls.  The disturbance is expected to become a
tropical storm off the east coast of Florida by tonight, and some
strengthening is forecast tonight through Monday as the system
moves farther away from Florida over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
to the east of the center.  Over the past few hours, a weather
station at Alligator Reef Light south of Islamorada, Florida,
reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph
(72 km/h).  A gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was reported at Carysfort
Reef Light east of Key Largo, Florida.

Based on a University of South Florida COMPS buoy, the estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will affect portions of South Florida, the
Keys, and northwestern Bahamas through today. The following storm
totals are expected:

South Florida: Storm total of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of
15 inches. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected.

Florida Keys: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of
10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12
inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Florida today, especially in squalls, and in the northwestern
Bahamas by this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are still
possible in western Cuba through this morning, mainly in squalls.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft
Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...1-2 ft

Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: Storm surge could raise water levels
by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A couple tornadoes are possible over the southern
Florida Peninsula and Upper Keys through early afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




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