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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory


033 
WTNT31 KNHC 032341
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
700 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 85.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas 
* Florida Bay 
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card 
Sound Bridge
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
Mayabeque
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of
days.  On the forecast track, the system should move across 
the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on 
Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the 
northwestern Bahamas late Saturday through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to develop a well-defined center and
become a tropical storm later tonight or early Saturday, and some 
slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida. 
Additional strengthening is possible after the system moves east of 
Florida over the western Atlantic Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high ...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce 
heavy rains across western Cuba through tonight. Heavy rain will 
continue to affect Central Florida, South Florida, the Keys, and the 
northwestern Bahamas tonight through Saturday. The following storm 
total rainfall amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches.
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys:  4 to 8 inches
with maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the Keys  This
rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Cuba through tonight, in Florida tonight and on
Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft
Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...1-2 ft

Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: storm surge could raise water levels
by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




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