Currently Active Systems

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 022052
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012022
2100 UTC THU JUN 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTY LINE...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA... 
ARTEMISA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR..
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
* FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA... 
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  87.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  87.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  87.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.3N  87.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.8N  84.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.5N  82.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.7N  79.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.6N  76.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 33.5N  70.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  87.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Source link