Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 040237
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012022
0300 UTC SAT JUN 04 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO CARD
SOUND BRIDGE
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...ARTEMISA...LA HABANA...AND
MAYABEQUE
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BERMUDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  83.7W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  83.7W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N  84.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.8N  82.0W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.4N  78.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.7N  75.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 32.3N  72.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 160SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.8N  68.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.3N  64.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 35.1N  58.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 37.2N  52.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N  83.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




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