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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 030246
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012022
0300 UTC FRI JUN 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND FOR THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR..
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO 
CARD SOUND BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF 
MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  87.4W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  87.4W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  87.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.5N  87.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.9N  85.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.6N  83.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.6N  80.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.9N  77.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  80SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.6N  74.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N  67.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 35.9N  62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N  87.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI




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