Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Public Advisory


929 
WTNT34 KNHC 202032
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042022
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 97.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.4 North, longitude 97.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue, bringing the system across northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas this evening and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some development is possible during the next few hours, but 
the chances of this system becoming a tropical cyclone are 
decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning
area during the next several hours.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall 
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches, along 
the northeastern coast of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas 
today. These rains could produce isolated flash flooding across 
coastal northeast Mexico.  Rainfall amounts of less than an inch are 
expected farther to the north across far South Texas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX... up to 1 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas through early Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




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