Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT44 KNHC 200231
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042022
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Based on the current infrared and microwave satellite data, the 
system does not appear to have a closed surface circulation yet and 
is therefore still not a tropical cyclone.  The mid-level center is 
estimated to be located in the southwestern portion of the deep 
convection.  Since there has been little change in organization 
after the Air Force reconnaissance left the system, the initial 
intensity is held at 30 kt based on that data.

The disturbance is moving northwestward at 12 kt.  This general
motion is expected to continue until landfall Saturday night in
northeastern Mexico as the system is steered by a ridge to its
northeast.  The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory prediction and closest to the correct consensus
model guidance.

Slight strengthening of the system is expected before landfall. 
Global models predict the vertical wind shear to increase in the 
next day or so, which should limit future organization and 
strengthening of the disturbance.  The NHC intensity forecast 
continues to show a peak of 40 kt before the system reaches the 
coast.  It is worth noting that this intensity prediction is 
slightly above the guidance envelope.  After moving inland, the 
system is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate within 48 hours 
near the Texas/Mexico border.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued.

2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast 
of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and 
Nuevo Leon, during the day Saturday. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rain may also 
move to the far south Texas coast through Saturday night, producing 
local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts.  


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 21.8N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  20/1200Z 23.2N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  21/0000Z 25.1N  97.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  21/1200Z 26.9N  99.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi



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