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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FONT15 KNHC 302051
PWSAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN                                  
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 30 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WAS       
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  26(47)   X(47)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   X(16)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   X(20)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  30(31)  10(41)   X(41)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   7(17)   X(17)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

S SALVADOR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)

TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)

GUATEMALA CITY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)

TAPACHULA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  21(25)  12(37)   X(37)   X(37)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MONTEGO BAY    34  X   4( 4)  19(23)   3(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)

KINGSTON       34  1  15(16)  13(29)   2(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI                                         



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