461 WTNT35 KNHC 302332 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 74.1W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman Island A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially Belize, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required early this week. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 74.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next several days with a gradual turn to the west by Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. It could be near hurricane intensity by Tuesday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Jamaica beginning late Monday and are possible on Grand Cayman Island on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday afternoon, the system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and Belize. For Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches are expected. This degree of rainfall could lead to flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven