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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 310234
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 30 2022

Satellite imagery and data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate there has been little change in the structure of the 
disturbance this evening.  Satellite imagery shows that the 
low-level center is apparent in satellite imagery between two areas 
of disorganized convection to the northwest of a loosely-curved 
convective band.  The aircraft data shows that the circulation at 
460 mb is located to the southeast of the surface center and is not 
well defined at that level.  Dropsondes to the northeast of the 
center showed surface winds of 30 kt, and drops near the center 
suggest the central pressure is near 1005 mb.  Based on these data, 
the initial intensity remains 35 kt. 

The estimated initial motion is a little to the left of the 
previous advisory, 280/10 kt.  A general westward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so 
due to the presence of a westward moving mid-level ridge north of 
the center.  After that time, the ridge should build a little 
faster toward the west and southwest, resulting in a south of west 
motion as the system approaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico just after 72 h.  The forecast guidance has shifted 
southward through 60 h, and the new forecast track is nudged in 
that direction.  However, the new track lies to the north of the 
various consensus models.  It should be noted that the the forecast 
track could undergo some additional adjustments until the 
circulation center becomes better defined.

A combination of the current disorganized structure, moderate 
west-northwesterly shear, and weakly convergent upper-level flow 
should limit intensification for the next 12-24 h.  However, the 
system is still expected to become a tropical storm in about 12 h 
when the convection increases during the diurnal maximum.  After 24 
h, increased upper-level divergence, decreased shear, and better 
organization should allow a faster development rate, and the system 
is expected to steadily strengthen.  The new intensity forecast 
follows the previous forecast in calling for the system to become a 
hurricane before landfall in Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula, with a
forecast peak intensity of 70 kt being near the upper edge of the 
intensity guidance.

No changes to the current watches are required at this time.  A 
Tropical Storm Warning may be necessary for Jamaica Monday morning 
depending on the evolution of the track and the 34-kt wind radii.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch areas beginning Monday for Jamaica and on Tuesday for Grand
Cayman Island.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the 
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will 
likely be required early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 15.8N  74.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  31/1200Z 16.0N  76.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  01/0000Z 16.3N  78.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 16.7N  80.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 17.1N  83.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 17.3N  85.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 17.1N  87.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 16.0N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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