Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 152058
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that 
the non-tropical low pressure system off the South Carolina coast 
has a broad low-level circulation center, but could be in the 
process of reforming closer to the mid-level circulation currently 
seen on radar from Wilmington, NC.  However, the system may not have 
yet completely shed its frontal characteristics. Since there is deep 
convection over and around the center, it is becoming more
likely the cyclone could become either a tropical or subtropical 
cyclone within the next day or so. Therefore the disturbance is 
being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight at this time 
with an initial intensity of 40 kt. 

There has been significant uncertainty in the center positions since 
last night, and the best guess at initial motion is northwestward or 
320/6 kt.  Over the next couple of days, the disturbance is expected 
to be steered by the flow on the southern or southwestern side of a 
mid-level high pressure system over the northeastern United States. 
This motion should bring the center inland over the southeastern 
U.S. coast in 24 hours or so.  The NHC forecast track is close to 
the simple and corrected dynamical consensus model solutions.

the system will be traversing warm waters for the next 24 hours or 
so and it may be situated within an area of relatively low shear 
near the axis of an upper-level trough.  Therefore some 
strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast 
is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is 
expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy 
rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast 
United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next 
couple of days.  

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the 
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical 
Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 

3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban 
flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and 
northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is 
also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the 
Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 32.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  16/0600Z 32.4N  78.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  16/1800Z 33.1N  79.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0600Z 34.1N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  17/1800Z 35.4N  80.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  18/0600Z 36.7N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  18/1800Z 37.5N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch