Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion

Published Date and Time: 2024-09-15 22:41:10



000
WTNT43 KNHC 160241
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) has become a bit better 
organized tonight, with deep convection on the northeast side of the 
circulation.  Additionally, the last aircraft pass just north of the 
estimated center of the system indicated that the temperature 
gradient from east-to-west had weakened.  However, it is still 
unclear whether a well-defined center exists looking at the latest 
satellite and radar animations, with the center that the plane found 
earlier looking somewhat elongated.  For now, the system will remain 
a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and the winds are set to 40 kt. An Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the area 
overnight for a better look at the system's structure.

It appears the system has only drifted northwest since this
afternoon.  The PTC should move a bit faster to the northwest on
Monday and Tuesday due to flow from a ridge over the northeastern
United States.  There is general agreement on this track in the
models, though they differ on the speed.  The new forecast is 
trended a bit slower than the last one, but not as slow as the 
ECMWF model.

The system has a high chance of being a tropical cyclone early 
tomorrow, and some strengthening is possible before landfall as it 
moves over warm waters with a conducive upper-level trough 
interaction.  The official forecast is similar to the latest 
decay-SHIPS model guidance and the prior forecast.

Key Messages:

1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy
rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast
United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next
couple of days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical
Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night.

3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban
flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is
also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the
Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 32.2N  77.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  16/1200Z 32.8N  78.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  17/0000Z 33.6N  79.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1200Z 34.5N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  18/0000Z 35.5N  80.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  18/1200Z 36.6N  81.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  19/0000Z 36.5N  80.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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