000 WTPZ42 KNHC 052043 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022 300 PM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022 Paine has been devoid of organized deep convection for about 18 hours, and it now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. Therefore, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and the system has become post-tropical. The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is based on recent ASCAT data. Strong shear and less favorable thermodynamic conditions are expected to cause additional weakening over the next day or so. The global model guidance indicates that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours. Now that Paine has become vertically shallow, it has turned west-northwestward. A continued slow west-northwestward to westward motion within the low-level flow should continue until dissipation occurs. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward and it lies along the southern side of the guidance envelope. This is the last NHC forecast advisory on Paine. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.3N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 06/0600Z 18.4N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 18.6N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 18.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown