Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 040837
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 04 2022

There has been no significant deep convection associated with
Javier for nearly 16 hours, and it's doubtful that any
organized deep convection will attempt a comeback.  Accordingly,
Javier has become a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the
final NHC advisory on this system.  The initial intensity is
lowered to 30 kt, which is in agreement with subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The remnant low should 
continue to gradually spin down over cooler sea surface 
temperatures during the next several days, and the deterministic
models indicate that the surface circulation will become a trough
of low pressure toward the end of the week. The NHC intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the 
intensity model consensus.

The low continues to move away from the Baja California peninsula 
and the initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt.  The cyclone should 
turn westward soon in the low-level trade flow as a shallow remnant 
low and maintain this general heading until it dissipates in 5 days.

This is the final NHC advisory on Javier.  For additional 
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 27.2N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  04/1800Z 27.8N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 27.6N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 27.1N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1800Z 26.8N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 26.6N 131.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 26.5N 133.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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