Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Post-Tropical Cyclone Georgette Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 032036
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Georgette Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082022
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 03 2022

Convection associated with Georgette dissipated this morning, and
only a few isolated showers have development since that time.  The
small circulation now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds.  Although small bursts of convection could still develop in
associated with the system over the next day or so, it has not had
appreciable organized deep convection in quite some time.
Therefore, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone,
and this will be the final NHC advisory on Georgette.  The initial
intensity has been reduced to 25 kt.  Weakening should continue
over the next 24 to 36 hours as the systems moves over SSTs below 
26C and into a dry mid-level environment.  The low is expected to 
become an open trough in 36 to 48 hours as indicated by the global 
model guidance. 

The cyclone is now moving northward at about 7 kt. A low-level 
ridge is forecast to build to the north of the system, and this 
should cause the low to turn westward on Thursday.  A general 
westward motion should then continue until dissipate occurs. The 
new NHC track prediction is a little north of the previous 
advisory to be in better agreement with the latest dynamical model 
guidance envelope. 

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 17.5N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  04/0600Z 18.2N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1800Z 18.7N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 18.7N 133.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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