Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Forecast Discussion

759 
WTPZ43 KNHC 060241
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Remaining deep convection associated with Carlotta has been
intermittent and distant from the fully exposed circulation center.
This is not surprising considering that Carlotta is moving over sea
surface temperatures near 24C with vertical shear near 30 kt. 
Initial intensity estimates ranged from the ADT's 25 kt to CIMSS 
SATCON's 36 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory has been 
held at 35 kt based on the SATCON estimate.

While there may be intermittent flare-ups of deep convection over
the next day or so, reintensification under these environmental
conditions is not likely. As a result, Carlotta has been declared a
post-tropical cyclone. The remnant circulation of Carlotta
should continue to spin down and the global and hi-res hurricane
models open up the circulation into a trough around the middle of
the week.

This is the last advisory on this system. For additional information
on the post-tropical cyclone, please see the High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI,
WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 20.6N 128.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/1200Z 20.6N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0000Z 20.2N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 19.6N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 19.1N 133.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama