Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FONT13 KNHC 242052
PWSAT3

HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
ST EUSTATIUS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
ST EUSTATIUS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    



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