Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities


494 
FONT13 KNHC 241444
PWSAT3

HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021               
1500 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

SABA           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
ANTIGUA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    



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