Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory


183 
WTNT23 KNHC 042030
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
2100 UTC MON OCT 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.1N  42.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 390SE 760SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.1N  42.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.8N  43.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 49.0N  39.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  80SE  80SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 330SE 420SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.9N  39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
50 KT...110NE 150SE 150SW  70NW.
34 KT...300NE 450SE 480SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 50.5N  36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 150SE 150SW   0NW.
34 KT...300NE 420SE 420SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 52.5N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 56.5N  25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...420NE 300SE 300SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 60.0N  25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...540NE 300SE 420SW 480NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 60.0N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.1N  42.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





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