Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory


504 
WTNT23 KNHC 041441
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N  45.7W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  28 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT.......220NE 240SE 240SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 390SE 580SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N  45.7W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.4N  47.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 46.5N  41.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW  70NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.0N  40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
50 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW  70NW.
34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.3N  38.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW  60NW.
34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 51.4N  33.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 330SE 330SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 54.3N  27.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 58.3N  24.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...360NE 240SE 210SW 450NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 61.0N  29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 60.0N  29.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.6N  45.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





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