Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory


196 
WTNT23 KNHC 021448
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  59.3W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE  45SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 210SE 130SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 280SE 300SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  59.3W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N  59.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.6N  57.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.4N  55.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.2N  52.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 210SE 190SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.8N  47.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 46.0N  42.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...190NE 240SE 270SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.0N  38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE  90SW  60NW.
34 KT...240NE 340SE 410SW 310NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 53.0N  33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 59.0N  26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N  59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





Source link