Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 020239
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  61.2W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 315SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  61.2W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N  61.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.5N  60.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.8N  58.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.7N  55.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.6N  52.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 43.0N  47.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 47.2N  43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 50.5N  38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 54.5N  27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N  61.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




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