Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory


686 
WTNT23 KNHC 300853
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  59.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  59.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  58.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N  60.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N  61.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.4N  61.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.1N  61.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.5N  59.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.5N  58.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 38.7N  52.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 44.3N  45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N  59.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





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