Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 270844
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
0900 UTC MON SEP 27 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  51.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  51.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  51.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.9N  52.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.8N  53.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.7N  54.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N  55.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.6N  57.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N  58.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.9N  61.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.5N  62.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  51.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




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