Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Roslyn Public Advisory


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 221751
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER NOW INVESTIGATING ROSLYN...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Roslyn is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn
toward the north is expected later today and tonight, followed by a
faster motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico through midday today, then approach the coast of
west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast of the
Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Roslyn is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast this 
afternoon.  Although some weakening is possible beginning tonight, 
Roslyn is expected to still be near or at major hurricane strength 
when it makes landfall on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km). 

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter data is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday.  Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the
warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Jalisco:  4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the
northern coast.

Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and
southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas:  1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



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