Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Roslyn Public Advisory


000
WTPZ34 KNHC 221139
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
600 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...MAJOR HURRICANE ROSLYN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 106.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Playa Perula to Manzanillo
* North of El Roblito to Mazatlan

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Roslyn was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.3 West.  Roslyn is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected later today and tonight,
followed by a faster motion toward the north-northeast on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Roslyn will move parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico through midday today, then approach the
coast of west-central Mexico, likely making landfall along the coast
of the Mexican state of Nayarit Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Roslyn is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast today.  Although 
some weakening is possible beginning tonight, Roslyn is expected to 
still be near or at major hurricane strength when it makes landfall 
on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday.  Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the
warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday.

RAINFALL:  Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central
Mexico:

Guerrero and Michoac√°n and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches

Upper coast of Colima, Jalisco, western Nayarit including Islas
Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts
of 8 inches

Southern Durango into western Zacatecas:  1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 5 inches

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas
of rugged terrain.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:  Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula through the weekend.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



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