Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Roslyn Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 221440
TCDEP4

Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Roslyn has intensified further during the past several hours, as
the hurricane continues to show a small well-defined eye inside of
a cold central dense overcast.  Given the rate of intensification,
the actual intensity is a bit of a moving target.  However, the
latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are
currently in the 105-115 kt range, and based on the latest CIMSS 
Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate the initial intensity is 
increased to 115 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Roslyn.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 330/7 kt.  The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous advisory.
Roslyn is expected to continue recurving around the western
periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico during the next
36 hours.  The track guidance continues to indicate that the
hurricane will pass just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico,
tonight, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday, likely
making landfall on the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit.  After
landfall, Roslyn or its remnants are expected to accelerate toward
the northeast over northern Mexico.  The new forecast track has
mainly noise-level adjustments from the previous forecast, and it
lies near the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening during the
next 6-12 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Roslyn to
strengthen some more during that time.  After that, increasing 
southwesterly vertical shear and land interaction should cause some 
weakening before landfall.  However, Roslyn is still expected to be 
at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on 
Sunday.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves 
through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidentals.  The 
intensity forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low by 
48 h and dissipate soon thereafter.  However, both of these could 
occur earlier than currently forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength
when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds
and a dangerous storm surge.  Preparations within the Hurricane
Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be
rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 18.0N 106.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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