Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Roslyn Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 220244
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
0300 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO EL ROBLITO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSLYN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.6W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  75SE  45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.6W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.6N 106.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.3N 106.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 105.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




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