Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Roslyn Forecast Advisory


627 
WTPZ24 KNHC 220845
TCMEP4

HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH
OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO EL ROBLITO
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO
* NORTH OF EL ROBLITO TO MAZATLAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  75SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.3N 106.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.1N 106.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.6N 105.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.7N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 106.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





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