Pacific Hurricane Feed

Hurricane Rick Wind Speed Probabilities



000
FOPZ12 KNHC 231446
PWSEP2

HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021               
1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70   
KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                            

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)

15N 105W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)  14(23)   X(23)   X(23)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)  20(26)  14(40)   X(40)   X(40)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

L CARDENAS     34  1  12(13)  51(64)  24(88)   4(92)   X(92)   X(92)
L CARDENAS     50  X   2( 2)  20(22)  33(55)   6(61)   X(61)   X(61)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  26(33)   4(37)   X(37)   X(37)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  1  19(20)  47(67)  15(82)   2(84)   X(84)   X(84)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   2( 2)  22(24)  19(43)   2(45)   X(45)   X(45)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  12(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)

15N 100W       34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

ACAPULCO       34  1   5( 6)   9(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
ACAPULCO       50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

P MALDONADO    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



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