Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rick Wind Speed Probabilities


515 
FOPZ12 KNHC 250247
PWSEP2

HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021               
0300 UTC MON OCT 25 2021                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80   
KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                            

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MANZANILLO     34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

L CARDENAS     34 96   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
L CARDENAS     50 67  13(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
L CARDENAS     64 29  20(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)

ZIHUATANEJO    34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ZIHUATANEJO    50 74   3(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
ZIHUATANEJO    64 35   3(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)

ACAPULCO       34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  



Source link