Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Cyclone Track Updates

Hurricane Rick Public Advisory



000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240558
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RICK...
...HURRICANE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 101.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located 
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 
15.3 North, longitude 101.8 West. Rick is moving toward the 
north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the 
north-northwest or north is expected over the next couple of days.  
On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the coast of 
Mexico today and tonight, and make landfall on the coast of Mexico 
late tonight or on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is expected and Rick is forecast to become a 
major hurricane later today. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC, 
and on the web at 
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages. 

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are expected 
within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this afternoon.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides

SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/D. Zelinsky



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