206 WTPZ32 KNHC 251152 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 ...RICK JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 102.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 102.1 West. Rick is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will move farther inland over southern Mexico today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected today while Rick moves over land, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico tonight or Tuesday. Rick is a compact tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). A Mexican Navy observing station in Lazaro Cardenas in the state of Michoacan recently reported a wind gust to 36 mph (58 km/h) and a pressure of 997 mb (29.44 inches). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue through early this afternoon within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning areas. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is producing significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in southern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge is accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch