Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rick Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 251452
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

The center of Rick made landfall a short distance east of Lazaro 
Cardenas, Mexico earlier this morning.  Since then, visible 
satellite images show that the system has continued to move 
generally northward over southern Mexico.  Assuming that weakening 
has occurred after landfall at a rate similar to that given by the 
decay-SHIPS model, the current intensity is set at 70 kt.  Rick 
should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, and 
although the NHC forecast shows a 24-h point, the global models 
suggest that the cyclone could dissipate by that time.

Satellite fixes indicate that Rick is moving just west of due north 
at a slightly faster forward speed, or around 350/8 kt.  A 
low-latitude mid-level ridge to the east of Rick should steer the 
cyclone northward to north-northwestward until dissipation occurs 
over southwestern Mexico.  The official forecast track is based 
partly on extrapolation since most of the model trackers lose the 
system later today due to dissipation of the low-level circulation. 
The updated NHC track forecast is similar to that from the previous 
advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday.  This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 18.6N 102.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 19.7N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  26/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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