000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241445 TCDEP2 Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Rick has changed little in organization since last night, with an 80-100 n mi wide Central Dense Overcast surrounded by some convective banding features. The intensity estimate is held at 75 kt for this advisory based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with objective ADT numbers from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow has become less well-defined over the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone, suggestive of some south-southeasterly shear. Center fixes indicate that the hurricane continues its fairly slow northward motion at around 355/5 kt. Rick should move northward to north-northwestward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge over Mexico, and the track guidance shows a slight increase in forward speed during the next day or so. The global models show a slight building of a mid-level ridge to the northwest of Rick in about 36 hours which could cause the track to bend more to the left after landfall. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and is also very close to the latest NOAA corrected-consensus, HCCA, prediction. Although Rick has been in a seemingly conducive environment for strengthening, the hurricane has not intensified much. This reminds us of our limited understanding of tropical cyclone intensity change. Nonetheless, since Rick should remain over warm waters and in a fairly moist mid-level atmospheric environment before reaching the coast, the official forecast continues to call for some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. When the center nears the coast, some increase in southwesterly shear and the interaction with the mountainous land mass of southern Mexico could cause some weakening. After landfall, the cyclone will weaken rapidly and the system may lose its identity sooner than shown in this forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rick is forecast to strengthen today and reach the coast of southern Mexico tonight or early Monday, bringing life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds within a portion of the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico beginning today from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan today, and could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.1N 101.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 16.9N 101.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 18.1N 102.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 36H 26/0000Z 19.2N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 26/1200Z 20.4N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch