Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Cyclone Track Updates

Hurricane Rick Forecast Advisory



156 
WTPZ22 KNHC 231528 CCA
TCMEP2

HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021
1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021

CORRECTED TO SHOW DISSIPATED AT 27/1200Z

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.  THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO...AND
WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 101.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





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