Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 120833
PWSEP1

HURRICANE PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162021               
0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  4  16(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  4  18(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

LA PAZ         34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

HUATABAMPO     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CULIACAN       34  1   4( 5)  34(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
CULIACAN       50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  8  54(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  1   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MAZATLAN       34  3  58(61)  32(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
MAZATLAN       50  X  11(11)  54(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
MAZATLAN       64  X   2( 2)  28(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)

SAN BLAS       34  2   5( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

P VALLARTA     34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MANZANILLO     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 110W       34 47   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               



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