Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion


003 
WTPZ41 KNHC 120834
TCDEP1

Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021

After being relatively steady in strength for the past 12 hours or
so, satellite images indicate that Pamela has resumed intensifying.
A large area of deep convection has developed during the past
several hours, and the center is estimated to be located near the
middle of the convective mass.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB have both increased to 4.0/65 kt, and therefore, Pamela has
now been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm later
this morning and early afternoon to provide a better assessment of
Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field.

Pamela has made the expected turn to the north, with the latest 
initial motion estimated to be 360/10 kt.  The system is now on the 
western periphery of the ridge, which should cause it to continue 
moving northward today.  However, by tonight, Pamela is forecast to 
become embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad mid- to 
upper-level trough, and that feature should cause the hurricane to 
move faster to the northeast toward the coast of west-central 
Mexico. After the storm moves inland early Wednesday, Pamela, or its 
remnants should accelerate northeastward across central and northern 
Mexico by the end of the week.  The NHC track forecast is similar to 
the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Even though Pamela has not strengthened as quickly as thought up to 
this point, the overall intensity forecast philosophy has not 
changed much.  The storm is expected to be in generally favorable 
conditions to gain strength until it reaches the coast of Mexico in 
24 to 36 hours.  Therefore, the NHC forecast continues to predict 
steady to rapid strengthening, and Pamela is likely to be near major 
hurricane intensity when it makes landfall.  After landfall, Pamela 
is expected to rapidly decay due to the rugged terrain of Mexico, 
and it should ultimately dissipate over northern Mexico in 2 to 3 
days.  The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model 
guidance.

Although the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's
remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern
Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the
south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday.

Key Messages:

1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it
reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and
life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected within the Hurricane Warning area.  Residents in this
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane later today an tonight,
and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
storm Watch area.

3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the
Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern
portions of Baja California Sur later today and Wednesday. This will
pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late
Wednesday and Thursday.  This may result in flash and urban
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 19.2N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 22.4N 107.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 25.1N 105.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  14/0600Z 28.4N 101.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




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