Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130848
TCDEP1

Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have not changed, 
recent imagery indicates that the center is more involved 
with the deep convection than it was earlier, suggesting that at 
least some strengthening has taken place.  Moreover, an excellent 
ASCAT-B scatterometer pass from around 0500 UTC showed a couple of 
53 to  54 kt wind vectors, which is likely an undersampling of the 
peak intensity.  On this basis, the estimated intensity of Pamela 
is increased slightly to 65 kt, so the system is once again a 
hurricane.  Since the tropical cyclone is close to landfall and the 
upper-level winds are not conducive for much more strengthening, 
little change in intensity is likely until the center crosses the 
coast.  Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, 
and the official forecast may be a little on the high side given 
the mountainous terrain that the system will traverse.

Center fixes from geostationary imagery and the scatterometer 
indicate that Pamela is now moving faster toward the northeast, or 
at about 045/12 kt.  Additional acceleration is expected during the 
next 12 to 24 hours while the cyclone is embedded in the deep-layer 
southwesterly flow between a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico 
and a broad trough over the west-central United States.  The 
official forecast track has been shifted a little to the southeast 
of the previous one, but still moves Pamela across the coast of 
Mexico withing the Hurricane Warning area this morning.  Later 
today and tonight, the rapidly weakening cyclone should move 
over central and northern Mexico.  By 36 hours, the global models 
show the system losing its identity.  The official forecast track 
is close to the simple and corrected consensus model solutions.

Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of
Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants 
are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on
Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United
States later today or Thursday.


Key Messages:

1. Pamela is forecast to make landfall on the west-central coast of 
Mexico this morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous 
hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning 
area.  Residents in this area should follow any advice given by 
local officials.

2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to continue to 
move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango today.  
This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides.

3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma later 
today or Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban 
flooding impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 22.8N 107.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 24.5N 105.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  14/0600Z 27.4N 101.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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