Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Pamela Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 121442
TCMEP1

HURRICANE PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162021
1500 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA
* SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES
* ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE 
WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS IN THIS CASE...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE 
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 18 
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 18 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.9W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.9W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 108.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N 106.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE  70SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.1N 103.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N  99.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 108.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




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