362
FOPZ11 KNHC 021446
PWSEP1
HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 68 30(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 8 69(77) 3(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 2 49(51) 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
MAZATLAN 34 1 29(30) 32(62) 7(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71)
MAZATLAN 50 X 4( 4) 13(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24)
MAZATLAN 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN BLAS 34 2 35(37) 8(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
SAN BLAS 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN BLAS 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
P VALLARTA 34 8 9(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN