Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Orlene Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 020851
PWSEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022               
0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

LA PAZ         34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CULIACAN       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  4  82(86)   9(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X  48(48)  24(72)   2(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X  19(19)  28(47)   2(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)

MAZATLAN       34  X   8( 8)  39(47)  18(65)   4(69)   X(69)   X(69)
MAZATLAN       50  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  15(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)
MAZATLAN       64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)

SAN BLAS       34  X  33(33)  30(63)   4(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
SAN BLAS       50  X   5( 5)  18(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SAN BLAS       64  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

P VALLARTA     34  2  41(43)   6(49)   2(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
P VALLARTA     50  X  10(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
P VALLARTA     64  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MANZANILLO     34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

20N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    



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