000
FOPZ11 KNHC 012357
PWSEP1
HURRICANE ORLENE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022
0000 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022
AT 0000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ORLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 19(19) 61(80) 10(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 42(45) 15(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 20(21) 14(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 31(45) 13(58) X(58) X(58)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 18(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MANZANILLO 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART