Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020256
TCDEP1

Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022

Orlene is a rapidly strengthening hurricane. The intensity of the
cyclone has increased by 35 kt in the past 18 h, and the satellite
presentation of Orlene has continued to improve this evening. A warm
and well-defined eye with a diameter of 10-15 n mi is evident in
GOES-17 satellite imagery, and the eyewall is comprised of a solid
ring of deep convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -70
degrees Celsius. The subjective current intensity estimates have
rapidly increased this evening, and SAB and TAFB provided consensus
T5.0/90 kt Dvorak estimates at 00 UTC. Objective satellite estimates
have continued to rise since then, and the initial intensity is set
at 95 kt for this advisory.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
strengthening during the next 12 h or so, while the hurricane moves
within a low deep-layer shear environment and over very warm SSTs.
The latest NHC intensity forecast shows Orlene peaking as a major
hurricane on Sunday. Then, the southwesterly shear is expected
to increase over Orlene, and the small hurricane should be 
especially susceptible to the negative effects of the increasing 
shear.  Therefore, the forecast shows steady weakening beginning 
Sunday night and continuing through landfall. It appears that Orlene
will be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of
mainland Mexico by late Monday, but it should quickly weaken
after landfall as it moves over the mountainous terrain.

The hurricane is moving just east of due north (005 degrees) at 4
kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged, as an upper-level
trough over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula is
expected to cause Orlene to move north-northeastward during the next
couple of days as it approaches the coast of mainland Mexico. The
GFS remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, but this
solution appears reasonable given the stronger hurricane is more
likely to feel the steering effects of the deep-layer trough.
Therefore, the NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly eastward
this cycle, and it generally lies to the east of the multi-model
consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. A
Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of west-central
mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday
with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch has been extended southward along the west-central
coast of Mexico, where hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday
or early Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 18.4N 106.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 19.1N 106.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 20.3N 106.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 21.5N 106.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 22.5N 105.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 23.1N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



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