000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020256 TCDEP1 Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022 Orlene is a rapidly strengthening hurricane. The intensity of the cyclone has increased by 35 kt in the past 18 h, and the satellite presentation of Orlene has continued to improve this evening. A warm and well-defined eye with a diameter of 10-15 n mi is evident in GOES-17 satellite imagery, and the eyewall is comprised of a solid ring of deep convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The subjective current intensity estimates have rapidly increased this evening, and SAB and TAFB provided consensus T5.0/90 kt Dvorak estimates at 00 UTC. Objective satellite estimates have continued to rise since then, and the initial intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory. The environmental conditions appear conducive for additional strengthening during the next 12 h or so, while the hurricane moves within a low deep-layer shear environment and over very warm SSTs. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows Orlene peaking as a major hurricane on Sunday. Then, the southwesterly shear is expected to increase over Orlene, and the small hurricane should be especially susceptible to the negative effects of the increasing shear. Therefore, the forecast shows steady weakening beginning Sunday night and continuing through landfall. It appears that Orlene will be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of mainland Mexico by late Monday, but it should quickly weaken after landfall as it moves over the mountainous terrain. The hurricane is moving just east of due north (005 degrees) at 4 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged, as an upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula is expected to cause Orlene to move north-northeastward during the next couple of days as it approaches the coast of mainland Mexico. The GFS remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, but this solution appears reasonable given the stronger hurricane is more likely to feel the steering effects of the deep-layer trough. Therefore, the NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly eastward this cycle, and it generally lies to the east of the multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning early Monday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch has been extended southward along the west-central coast of Mexico, where hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday or early Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of southwestern Mexico into Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 18.4N 106.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 19.1N 106.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 20.3N 106.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 21.5N 106.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 22.5N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 23.1N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart