935 WTPZ21 KNHC 020850 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162022 0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAS ISLAS MARIAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.8N 105.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 105.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 106.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH