Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Advisory


935 
WTPZ21 KNHC 020850
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  949 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.7N 106.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.9N 106.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.8N 105.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 105.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 106.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





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