Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 030246
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
0300 UTC MON OCT 03 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.9N 106.2W...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.6N 105.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 106.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE




Source link