Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Orlene Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ21 KNHC 022034
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ORLENE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  75SE  45SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.4N 106.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 106.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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