Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities

Published Date and Time: 2024-10-08 10:55:35



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FONT14 KNHC 081455
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HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024               
1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   7(28)   X(28)   X(28)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  22(27)   7(34)   X(34)   X(34)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   5(18)   X(18)   X(18)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  23(29)   3(32)   X(32)   X(32)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  40(45)  11(56)   X(56)   X(56)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   9(24)   X(24)   X(24)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

THE VILLAGES   34  X   1( 1)  11(12)  44(56)   4(60)   X(60)   X(60)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  25(26)   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  57(68)   9(77)   X(77)   X(77)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  33(34)   6(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)  16(16)  61(77)  12(89)   X(89)   X(89)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  40(41)  15(56)   X(56)   X(56)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  13(29)   X(29)   X(29)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)  17(17)  60(77)  12(89)   X(89)   X(89)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  40(41)  15(56)   X(56)   X(56)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  13(29)   X(29)   X(29)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  54(70)  10(80)   X(80)   X(80)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  29(30)  11(41)   X(41)   X(41)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   8(17)   X(17)   X(17)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  40(54)   7(61)   X(61)   X(61)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  29(42)   5(47)   X(47)   X(47)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MIAMI FL       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   2(17)   X(17)   X(17)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)

MARATHON FL    34  X   3( 3)  12(15)   9(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   5( 5)  17(22)   5(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NAPLES FL      34  X   4( 4)  50(54)  20(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)
NAPLES FL      50  X   X( X)  12(12)  15(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
NAPLES FL      64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   2( 2)  39(41)  27(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  20(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

VENICE FL      34  X   6( 6)  72(78)  17(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)  40(40)  35(75)   2(77)   X(77)   X(77)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)  15(15)  36(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)

TAMPA FL       34  X   3( 3)  58(61)  31(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)  22(22)  44(66)   3(69)   X(69)   X(69)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   7( 7)  38(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   2( 2)  29(31)  28(59)   1(60)   1(61)   X(61)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  20(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   2( 2)   8(10)   6(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   3( 3)  20(23)   6(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ALBANY GA      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

DOTHAN AL      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COZUMEL MX     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)  15(40)   X(40)   X(40)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   1(13)   X(13)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

HAVANA         34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ISLE OF PINES  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



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