Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory

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HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  43.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 180SE  70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  43.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  42.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N  44.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.2N  45.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.3N  47.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE  90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.7N  48.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N  49.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.7N  50.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 32.7N  49.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 150SW 170NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 39.6N  42.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 290SE 250SW 190NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  43.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


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